Publications
Winter forecasting of respiratory viruses in Victoria Australia Henderson AS✉, Moss R , Adekunle AI, Ye H, O'Hara-Wild M, Eales O, Senior KL, Tobin RJ, Windecker SM, Golding N, Robinson EJ, Strachan J, Hyndman R, Dawson P, McCaw JM, McBryde ES, Shearer FM Preprint .
hpci improves reproducibility of computational biology research by integrating Continuous Integration with High Performance Computing clusters Menzies IJ✉, Urng E, Bouras G, Moss R , Reeves J, Goldstein LD Preprint .
Detecting simulated pathogen releases in a real-world health data set Moss R ✉, Testolin MJ, Pitsaris C, Hill AM, Muscatello DJ, McCaw JM, Dawson PPreprint .
Modelling the impact of improving access to healthcare on Hepatitis B prevalence in the Thai-Myanmar border region Pham AD, Moss R , Pan-ngum W, McGready R, Geard N Preprint .
A flexible agent-based modelling framework of multi-serotype pneumococcal carriage to evaluate vaccine strategies in large populations Tellioglu N, Price DJ, Chen X, Spirkoska V, Wang Y, Moss R , Carvalho N, Carville K, Campbell PT† , McVernon J† Preprint .
A sub-exponential branching process to study early epidemic dynamics with application to Ebola Zarebski AE✉, Moss R , McCaw JM Preprint .
A hybrid framework for compartmental models enabling simulation-based inference Germano DPJ† , Zarebski AE† , Hautphenne S, Moss R , Flegg JA✉, Flegg MB J Math Biol , 92, 2026.
Ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 activity to support Australia's pandemic response: 2020-22 Moss R ✉, Tobin RJ, O'Hara-Wild M, Adekunle AI, Liu D, South T, Morris DJ, Ryan GE, Hao T, Babu A, Senior KL, Wood JG, Golding N, Ross JV, Dawson P, Hyndman RJ, Price DJ† , McCaw JM† , Shearer FM† PLoS Comp Biol , 22(4), 2026.
Cost-effectiveness of immunising interventions to reduce respiratory syncytial virus disease burden in infants in Australia Carlin JB† ✉, Marcato AJ† , Wang Y† , Moss R , Carville KS, Chen X, Oliver VL, Spirkoska V, Campbell PT, Price DJ, Carvalho N† , McVernon J† PharmacoEconomics , 2026.
The role of the spleen in red blood cell loss caused by malaria: a mathematical model Moss R † , Dini S† , Kho S, Barber BE, Buffet PA, Rajasekhar M, Price DJ, Anstey NA† ✉, Simpson JA† ✉PLoS Comp Biol , 22(1), 2026.
A modular approach to forecasting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy Tobin RJ✉, Walker CR, Moss R , McCaw JM, Price DJ† , Shearer FM† ✉ Communications Medicine , 5: 349, 2025.
Within-host modeling of primaquine-induced hemolysis in hemizygote glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficient healthy volunteers Watson JA† ✉, Mehdipour P† , Moss R † , Jittamala P, Zaloumis SG, Price DJ, Dini S, Hanboonkunupakarn B, Leungsinsiri P, Poovorawan K, Chotivanich K, Bancone G, Commons RJ, Day NPJ, Pukrittayakamee S, Taylor WRJ, White NJ✉, Simpson JA Antimicrob Agents Chemother , 69(4): e01549-24, 2025.
Opportunities to strengthen respiratory virus surveillance systems in Australia: lessons learned from the COVID-19 response Shearer FM✉, Edwards L, Kirk M, Eales O, Golding N, Hassall J, Liu B, Lydeamore M, Miller C, Moss R , Price DJ, Ryan GE, Sullivan SG, Tobin R, Ward K, Kaldor J, Cheng AC, Wood J, McCaw JM Commun Dis Intell , 48: 47, 2024.
pypfilt: a particle filter for Python Moss R ✉Journal of Open Source Software , 9(96): 6276, 2024.
The re-emergence of influenza following the COVID-19 pandemic in Victoria, Australia Pendrey CGA✉, Strachan J, Peck H, Aziz A, Moselen J, Moss R , Rahaman MR, Barr IG, Subbarao K, Sullivan SG Eurosurveillance , 28(37): 2300118, 2023.
Forecasting COVID-19 activity in Australia to support pandemic response: May to October 2020 Moss R ✉, Price DJ, Golding N, Dawson P, McVernon J, Hyndman RJ, Shearer FM, McCaw JMScientific Reports , 13: 8763, 2023.
From climate change to pandemics: decision science can help scientists have impact Baker CM✉, Campbell PT, Chades I, Dean AJ, Hester SM, Holden MH, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Moss R , Shearer FM, Possingham HP Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution , 10: 792749, 2022.
Commentary on "Transparent modeling of influenza incidence": Because the model said so Moss R ✉International Journal of Forecasting , 38: 620–621, 2022.
Development of an influenza pandemic decision support tool linking situational analytics to national response policy Shearer FM✉, Moss R , Price DJ, Zarebski AE, Ballard PG, McVernon J, Ross JV, McCaw JM Epidemics , 36: 100478, 2021.
Constructing an ethical framework for priority allocation of pandemic vaccines Sullivan SG✉, Fielding JE, Beard F, Macartney K, Williams JH, Dawson A, Gilbert GL, Massey P, Crooks K, Moss R , McCaw JM, McVernon J Vaccine , 39(5): 797–804, 2021.
Priority allocation of pandemic influenza vaccines in Australia - recommendations of 3 Community Juries Degeling C✉, Williams JH, Carter SM, Moss R , Massey P, Brown D, Gilbert GL, Shih P, Braunack-Mayer A, Crooks K, McVernon J Vaccine , 39(2): 255–262, 2021.
Influenza vaccine effectiveness against influenza-related mortality in Australian hospitalized patients: a propensity score analysis Nation ML, Moss R , Spittal MJ, Kotsimbos T, Kelly PM, Cheng AC✉ Clin Infect Dis , 72(1): 99–107, 2021.
Coronavirus Disease Model to Inform Transmission Reducing Measures and Health System Preparedness, Australia Moss R , Wood J, Brown D, Shearer FM, Black AJ, Cheng AC, McCaw JM, McVernon J✉Emerg Infect Dis , 26(12): 2844–2853, 2020.
Proportional multistate lifetable modelling of preventive interventions: concepts, code and worked examples Blakely T✉, Moss R , Collins J, Mizdrak A, Carvalho N, Wilson N, Geard N, Flaxman A Int J Epidemiol , 49(5): 1624–1636, 2020.
Influencing public health policy with data-informed mathematical models of infectious diseases: Recent developments and new challenges Alahmadi A† , Belet B† , Black AJ† , Cromer D† , Flegg JA† ✉, House T† ✉, Jayasundara P† , Keith JM† , McCaw JM† , Moss R † , Ross JV† , Shearer FM† , Tun STT† , Walker J† , White L† , Whyte JM† , Yan AWC† , Zarebski AE† Epidemics , 32: 100393, 2020.
Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic Price DJ✉, Shearer FM✉, Meehan MT, McBryde ES, Moss R , Golding N, Conway EJ, Dawson P, Cromer D, Wood J, Abbott S, McVernon J, McCaw JM eLife , 9: e58785, 2020.
Coordinating the real-time use of global influenza activity data for better public health planning Biggerstaff M† , Dahlgren FS† , Fitzner J† , George D† , Hammond A† , Hall I† , Haw D† , Imai N† , Johansson M† , Kramer S† , McCaw JM† , Moss R † , Pebody R† , Read JM† , Reed C† , Reich NG† , Riley S† ✉, Vandemaele K† ✉, Viboud C† , Wu JT† Influenza Other Respir Viruses , 14(2): 105–110, 2020.
Infectious disease pandemic planning and response: Incorporating decision analysis Shearer FM, Moss R , McVernon J, Ross JV, McCaw JM✉ PLoS Med , 17: e1003018, 2020.
Optimal Timing of Influenza Vaccine during Pregnancy: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Cuningham W✉, Geard N, Fielding JE, Braat S, Madhi SA, Nunes MC, Christian LM, Lin S-Y, Lee C-N, Yamaguchi K, Bisgaard H, Chawes B, Chao A-S, Blanchard-Rohner G, Schlaudecker EP, Fisher BM, McVernon J, Moss R Influenza Other Respir Viruses , 13(5): 438–452, 2019.
What can urban mobility data reveal about the spatial distribution of infection in a single city? Moss R ✉, Naghizade E, Tomko M, Geard NBMC Public Health , 19: 656, 2019.
Anatomy of a seasonal influenza epidemic forecast Moss R ✉, Zarebski AE, Dawson P, Franklin LJ, Birrell FA, McCaw JMCommun Dis Intell , 43: 1–14, 2019.
Accounting for healthcare-seeking behaviours and testing practices in real-time influenza forecasts Moss R ✉, Zarebski AE, Carlson SJ, McCaw JMTrop Med Infect Dis , 4(1): 12, 2019.
Model selection for seasonal influenza forecasting Zarebski AE, Dawson P, McCaw JM, Moss R ✉ Infect Dis Mod , 2(1): 56–70, 2017.
Retrospective forecasting of the 2010–2014 Melbourne influenza seasons using multiple surveillance systems Moss R ✉, Zarebski AE, Dawson P, McCaw JMEpidemiol Infect , 145(1): 156–169, 2017.
Reducing disease burden in an influenza pandemic by targeted delivery of neuraminidase inhibitors: mathematical models in the Australian context Moss R ✉, McCaw JM, Cheng AC, Hurt AC, McVernon JBMC Infect Dis , 16(1): 552, 2016.
Model-informed risk assessment and decision making for an emerging infectious disease in the Asia-Pacific region Moss R , Hickson RI, McVernon J, McCaw JM, Hort K, Black J, Madden JR, Tran NH, McBryde ES, Geard N✉PLoS Negl Trop Dis , 10(9): e0005018, 2016.
Forecasting influenza outbreak dynamics in Melbourne from Internet search query surveillance data Moss R ✉, Zarebski AE, Dawson P, McCaw JMInfluenza Other Respir Viruses , 10(4): 314–323, 2016.
Innate immunity and the inter-exposure interval determine the dynamics of secondary influenza virus infection and explain observed viral hierarchies Cao P, Yan AWC, Heffernan JM, Petrie S, Moss R , Carolan LA, Guarnaccia TA, Kelso A, Barr IG, McVernon J, Laurie KL, McCaw JM✉ PLoS Comp Biol , 11(8): e1004334, 2015.
Drivers and consequences of influenza antiviral resistant-strain emergence in a capacity-constrained pandemic response Dafilis MP✉, Moss R , McVernon J, McCaw JM Epidemics , 4(4): 219–226, 2012.
Virtual Patients and Sensitivity Analysis of the Guyton Model of Blood Pressure Regulation: Towards Individualized Models of Whole-Body Physiology Moss R , Grosse T, Marchant I, Lassau N, Gueyffier F, Thomas SR✉PLoS Comp Biol , 8(6): e1002571, 2012.
Likely effectiveness of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating influenza virus transmission in Mongolia Bolton KJ✉, McCaw JM, Moss R , Morris RS, Wang S, Burma A, Darma B, Narangerel D, Nymadawa P, McVernon J Bull WHO , 90(4): 264–271, 2012.
Integration of detailed modules in a core model of body fluid homeostasis and blood pressure regulation Hernández AI✉, Le Rolle V, Ojeda D, Baconnier P, Fontecave-Jallon J, Guillaud F, Grosse T, Moss R , Hannaert P, Thomas SR Prog Biophys Mol Biol , 107(1): 169–182, 2011.
A decision support tool for evaluating the impact of a diagnostic-capacity and antiviral-delivery constrained intervention strategy on an influenza pandemic McCaw JM✉, Moss R , McVernon J Influenza Other Respir Viruses , 5(Suppl. 1): 212–215, 2011.
Diagnosis and Antiviral Intervention Strategies for Mitigating an Influenza Epidemic Moss R ✉, McCaw JM, McVernon JPLoS ONE , 6(2): e14505, 2011.
Discrete network models of interacting nephrons Moss R ✉, Kazmierczak E, Kirley M, Harris PJPhysica D , 238(22): 2166–2176, 2009.
The Virtual Kidney: an e-Science interface and Grid Portal Harris PJ✉, Buyya R, Chu X, Kobialka T, Kazmierczak E, Moss R , Appelbe W, Hunter PJ, Thomas SR Phil Trans R Soc A , 367(1896): 2141–2159, 2009.
A computational model for emergent dynamics in the kidney Moss R , Kazmierczak E✉, Kirley M, Harris PJPhil Trans R Soc A , 367(1896): 2125–2140, 2009.