Dr Rob Moss

Senior Research Fellow
Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics
Melbourne School of Population and Global Health
The University of Melbourne Office 335, 207 Bouverie St
(03) 8344 9430
rgmoss AT unimelb edu au
@rob_models mastodon

Curriculum Vitæ / Publications
ORCID / Google / Semantic Scholar / Lens / Scopus / Web of Science

Research

My research focuses on predicting and mitigating the burden of infectious disease epidemics, through the use of mathematical/computational modelling and Bayesian inference. My primary focus is on seasonal and pandemic influenza, and (more recently) COVID-19. This includes:

• Using scenario modelling to inform recommendations for specific interventions, such as targeted antiviral distribution; and
• Synthesising models and surveillance data to generate near-real-time epidemic forecasts.

I am a proponent of Reproducible Research, Open Access, and Free and Open Source Software, and produce open source software packages through my research activities (listed below).

A model that cannot be explained should not inform decisions that require justification.

— Because the model said so

Interactive models

• This interactive SEIR demo illustrates how epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction number, affect the size and duration of an epidemic.

• This interactive SIR demo illustrates how outbreaks in small populations are driven by stochastic events. It is designed for use in a talk or presentation, where the model population size can be set to the number of people in the audience \(N\), each of whom should be given a unique number from \({1 \dots N}\). A simplified interface is also provided.

Open source software packages

Research networks