Publications

Preprints

• Jump-Switch-Flow: hybrid stochastic-deterministic solutions of compartmental models
  Germano DPJ^†, Zarebski AE^†, Hautphenne S, Moss R, Flegg JA, Flegg MB
  Preprint.
  
• Within-host modelling of primaquine-induced haemolysis in hemizygote glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficient healthy volunteers
  Watson JA^†✉, Mehdipour P^†, Moss R^†, Jittamala P, Zaloumis S, Price DJ, Dini S, Hanboonkunupakarn B, Leungsinsiri P, Poovorawan K, Chotivanich K, Bancone G, Commons RJ, Day NPJ, Pukrittayakamee S, Taylor WRJ, White NJ✉, Simpson JA
  Preprint.
  
• A modular approach to forecasting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy
  Tobin RJ, Walker CR, Moss R, Mccaw JM, Price DJ^†, Shearer FM^†
  Preprint.
  

2024

• Opportunities to strengthen respiratory virus surveillance systems in Australia: lessons learned from the COVID-19 response
  Shearer FM✉, Edwards L, Kirk M, Eales O, Golding N, Hassall J, Liu B, Lydeamore M, Miller C, Moss R, Price DJ, Ryan GE, Sullivan SG, Tobin R, Ward K, Kaldor J, Cheng AC, Wood J, McCaw JM
  Commun Dis Intell, 48: 47, 2024.
  
• pypfilt: a particle filter for Python
  Moss R✉
  Journal of Open Source Software, 9(96): 6276, 2024.
  

2023

• The re-emergence of influenza following the COVID-19 pandemic in Victoria, Australia
  Pendrey CGA✉, Strachan J, Peck H, Aziz A, Moselen J, Moss R, Rahaman MR, Barr IG, Subbarao K, Sullivan SG
  Eurosurveillance, 28(37): 2300118, 2023.
  
• Forecasting COVID-19 activity in Australia to support pandemic response: May to October 2020
  Moss R✉, Price DJ, Golding N, Dawson P, McVernon J, Hyndman RJ, Shearer FM, McCaw JM
  Scientific Reports, 13: 8763, 2023.
  

2022

• From climate change to pandemics: decision science can help scientists have impact
  Baker CM✉, Campbell PT, Chades I, Dean AJ, Hester SM, Holden MH, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Moss R, Shearer FM, Possingham HP
  Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 10: 792749, 2022.
  
• Commentary on "Transparent modeling of influenza incidence": Because the model said so
  Moss R✉
  International Journal of Forecasting, 38: 620–621, 2022.
  

2021

• Development of an influenza pandemic decision support tool linking situational analytics to national response policy
  Shearer FM✉, Moss R, Price DJ, Zarebski AE, Ballard PG, McVernon J, Ross JV, McCaw JM
  Epidemics, 36: 100478, 2021.
  
• Constructing an ethical framework for priority allocation of pandemic vaccines
  Sullivan SG✉, Fielding JE, Beard F, Macartney K, Williams J, Dawson A, Gilbert GL, Massey P, Crooks K, Moss R, McCaw JM, McVernon J
  Vaccine, 39(5): 797–804, 2021.
  
• Priority allocation of pandemic influenza vaccines in Australia - recommendations of 3 Community Juries
  Degeling C✉, Williams JH, Carter SM, Moss R, Massey P, Brown D, Gilbert GL, Shih P, Braunack-Mayer A, Crooks K, McVernon J
  Vaccine, 39(2): 255–262, 2021.
  
• Influenza vaccine effectiveness against influenza-related mortality in Australian hospitalized patients: a propensity score analysis
  Nation ML, Moss R, Spittal MJ, Kotsimbos T, Kelly PM, Cheng AC✉
  Clin Infect Dis, 72(1): 99–107, 2021.
  

2020

• Coronavirus Disease Model to Inform Transmission Reducing Measures and Health System Preparedness, Australia
  Moss R, Wood J, Brown D, Shearer FM, Black AJ, Cheng AC, McCaw JM, McVernon J✉
  Emerg Infect Dis, 26(12): 2844–2853, 2020.
  
• Proportional multistate lifetable modelling of preventive interventions: concepts, code and worked examples
  Blakely T✉, Moss R, Collins J, Mizdrak A, Carvalho N, Wilson N, Geard N, Flaxman A
  Int J Epidemiol, 49(5): 1624–1636, 2020.
  
• Influencing public health policy with data-informed mathematical models of infectious diseases: Recent developments and new challenges
  Alahmadi A^†, Belet B^†, Black AJ^†, Cromer D^†, Flegg JA^†✉, House T^†✉, Jayasundara P^†, Keith JM^†, McCaw JM^†, Moss R^†, Ross JV^†, Shearer FM^†, Tun STT^†, Walker J^†, White L^†, Whyte JM^†, Yan AWC^†, Zarebski AE^†
  Epidemics, 32: 100393, 2020.
  
• Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic
  Price DJ✉, Shearer FM✉, Meehan MT, McBryde ES, Moss R, Golding N, Conway EJ, Dawson P, Cromer D, Wood J, Abbott S, McVernon J, McCaw JM
  eLife, 9: e58785, 2020.
  
• Coordinating the real-time use of global influenza activity data for better public health planning
  Biggerstaff M^†, Dahlgren FS^†, Fitzner J^†, George D^†, Hammond A^†, Hall I^†, Haw D^†, Imai N^†, Johansson M^†, Kramer S^†, McCaw JM^†, Moss R^†, Pebody R^†, Read JM^†, Reed C^†, Reich NG^†, Riley S^†✉, Vandemaele K^†✉, Viboud C^†, Wu JT^†
  Influenza Other Respir Viruses, 14(2): 105–110, 2020.
  
• Infectious disease pandemic planning and response: Incorporating decision analysis
  Shearer FM, Moss R, McVernon J, Ross JV, McCaw JM✉
  PLoS Med, 17: e1003018, 2020.
  

2019

• Optimal Timing of Influenza Vaccine during Pregnancy: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
  Cuningham W✉, Geard N, Fielding JE, Braat S, Madhi SA, Nunes MC, Christian LM, Lin S-Y, Lee C-N, Yamaguchi K, Bisgaard H, Chawes B, Chao A-S, Blanchard-Rohner G, Schlaudecker EP, Fisher BM, McVernon J, Moss R
  Influenza Other Respir Viruses, 13(5): 438–452, 2019.
  
• What can urban mobility data reveal about the spatial distribution of infection in a single city?
  Moss R✉, Naghizade E, Tomko M, Geard N
  BMC Public Health, 19: 656, 2019.
  
• Anatomy of a seasonal influenza epidemic forecast
  Moss R✉, Zarebski AE, Dawson P, Franklin LJ, Birrell FA, McCaw JM
  Commun Dis Intell, 43: 1–14, 2019.
  
• Accounting for healthcare-seeking behaviours and testing practices in real-time influenza forecasts
  Moss R✉, Zarebski AE, Carlson SJ, McCaw JM
  Trop Med Infect Dis, 4(1): 12, 2019.
  

2018

• Epidemic forecasts as a tool for public health: interpretation and (re)calibration
  Moss R✉, Fielding JE, Stephens N, McVernon J, Dawson P, McCaw JM
  Aust N Z J Public Health, 42(1): 69–76, 2018.
  

2017

• Model selection for seasonal influenza forecasting
  Zarebski AE, Dawson P, McCaw JM, Moss R✉
  Infect Dis Mod, 2(1): 56–70, 2017.
  
• Retrospective forecasting of the 2010–2014 Melbourne influenza seasons using multiple surveillance systems
  Moss R✉, Zarebski AE, Dawson P, McCaw JM
  Epidemiol Infect, 145(1): 156–169, 2017.
  

2016

• Reducing disease burden in an influenza pandemic by targeted delivery of neuraminidase inhibitors: mathematical models in the Australian context
  Moss R✉, McCaw JM, Cheng AC, Hurt AC, McVernon J
  BMC Infect Dis, 16(1): 552, 2016.
  
• Model-informed risk assessment and decision making for an emerging infectious disease in the Asia-Pacific region
  Moss R, Hickson RI, McVernon J, McCaw JM, Hort K, Black J, Madden JR, Tran NH, McBryde ES, Geard N✉
  PLoS Negl Trop Dis, 10(9): e0005018, 2016.
  
• Forecasting influenza outbreak dynamics in Melbourne from Internet search query surveillance data
  Moss R✉, Zarebski AE, Dawson P, McCaw JM
  Influenza Other Respir Viruses, 10(4): 314–323, 2016.
  

2015

• Innate immunity and the inter-exposure interval determine the dynamics of secondary influenza virus infection and explain observed viral hierarchies
  Cao P, Yan AWC, Heffernan JM, Petrie S, Moss R, Carolan LA, Guarnaccia TA, Kelso A, Barr IG, McVernon J, Laurie KL, McCaw JM✉
  PLoS Comp Biol, 11(8): e1004334, 2015.
  

2014

• Dominant factors that govern pressure natriuresis in diuresis and antidiuresis: a mathematical model
  Moss R✉, Layton AT
  AJP Renal Physiol, 306(9): F952–F969, 2014.
  
• Hormonal regulation of salt and water excretion: a mathematical model of whole-kidney function and pressure-natriuresis
  Moss R✉, Thomas SR
  AJP Renal Physiol, 306(2): F224–248, 2014.
  

2012

• Drivers and consequences of influenza antiviral resistant-strain emergence in a capacity-constrained pandemic response
  Dafilis MP✉, Moss R, McVernon J, McCaw JM
  Epidemics, 4(4): 219–226, 2012.
  
• Virtual Patients and Sensitivity Analysis of the Guyton Model of Blood Pressure Regulation: Towards Individualized Models of Whole-Body Physiology
  Moss R, Grosse T, Marchant I, Lassau N, Gueyffier F, Thomas SR✉
  PLoS Comp Biol, 8(6): e1002571, 2012.
  
• Likely effectiveness of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating influenza virus transmission in Mongolia
  Bolton KJ✉, McCaw JM, Moss R, Morris RS, Wang S, Burma A, Darma B, Narangerel D, Nymadawa P, McVernon J
  Bull WHO, 90(4): 264–271, 2012.
  

2011

• Integration of detailed modules in a core model of body fluid homeostasis and blood pressure regulation
  Hernández AI✉, Le Rolle V, Ojeda D, Baconnier P, Fontecave-Jallon J, Guillaud F, Grosse T, Moss R, Hannaert P, Thomas SR
  Prog Biophys Mol Biol, 107(1): 169–182, 2011.
  
• A decision support tool for evaluating the impact of a diagnostic-capacity and antiviral-delivery constrained intervention strategy on an influenza pandemic
  McCaw JM✉, Moss R, McVernon J
  Influenza Other Respir Viruses, 5(Suppl. 1): 212–215, 2011.
  
• Diagnosis and Antiviral Intervention Strategies for Mitigating an Influenza Epidemic
  Moss R✉, McCaw JM, McVernon J
  PLoS ONE, 6(2): e14505, 2011.
  

2009

• Discrete network models of interacting nephrons
  Moss R✉, Kazmierczak E, Kirley M, Harris PJ
  Physica D, 238(22): 2166–2176, 2009.
  
• The Virtual Kidney: an e-Science interface and Grid Portal
  Harris PJ✉, Buyya R, Chu X, Kobialka T, Kazmierczak E, Moss R, Appelbe W, Hunter PJ, Thomas SR
  Phil Trans R Soc A, 367(1896): 2141–2159, 2009.
  
• A computational model for emergent dynamics in the kidney
  Moss R, Kazmierczak E✉, Kirley M, Harris PJ
  Phil Trans R Soc A, 367(1896): 2125–2140, 2009.
  

2008

• A Clockwork Kidney: Using hierarchical dynamical networks to model emergent dynamics in the kidney
  Moss R
  Ph.D. Thesis, 2008.