Dr Rob Moss

Research Fellow
Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics
Melbourne School of Population and Global Health
The University of Melbourne
Office 335
207 Bouverie St
(03) 8344 9430
rgmoss AT unimelb edu au

Mathematical modelling of biological and physiological systems:
• Infectious disease epidemics to inform health-care policy (details); and
• Neurohormonal regulation of renal water and sodium excretion (details).

Disease surveillance: no silver bullet

Influenza posts Nov 3, 2017 Forecasting Influenza

In thinking about the strengths and limitations of different surveillance systems — from the perspective of infectious disease forecasting in my case, but the point applies more generally — it becomes clear that there is no silver bullet. No one surveillance system will tell us everything we need to know in order to understand the current impact of a disease on a population, or to predict the future impact of a disease. The surveillance pyramid model illustrates this in a very nice and clear manner:

Compartmental models in Rust

Influenza posts Oct 26, 2017 Language Modelling

I’ve been learning a bit of Rust in the past few weeks, mostly by writing some basic SIR-type models (both as ODE systems, and as continuous-time and discrete-time Markov chains). It takes most (maybe all) of the things that I like about OCaml and adds more great features and safety guarantees, thanks to its ownership model and lifetimes. It’s also very fast (no garbage collector, zero-cost abstractions) and has fantastic tooling, although compilation times can be very long, and package (“crate”) availability can be very hit-or-miss. I’ve enjoyed it enough that I’m looking forward to writing more Rust code in the future. Although I’ve no plans to rewrite pypfilt or epifx in Rust any time soon!

Model selection for seasonal influenza forecasting

Influenza posts Jan 19, 2017 Forecasting Influenza Modelling

Two firsts in one: “Model selection for seasonal influenza forecasting” is Alex’s first first-author and my first last-author paper. It will appear in an upcoming issue of Infectious Disease Modelling, a new open access journal with a focus on the interface between mathematical modelling, data analysis, and public health decision support.