Early detection and forecasting of infectious disease epidemics through the use of Bayesian estimation and mechanistic models of infection. Mathematical modelling of containment strategies for epidemic diseases within logistical constraints of existing healthcare systems, of medical and immunological control of viral infections, and of in-host viral mutation as a result of selection pressure.
The goals of this work are to understand and account for the real-world constraints that limit the ability to identify extant epidemics, to intervene appropriately, and to reduce endemic burden. The outcomes of this work are to inform health-care policy on the grounds that what is good for the population is good for the country.
This work is aligned with the Understanding and controlling influenza and other respiratory viruses theme of the PRISM² Centre for Research Excellence. See my research statement for more details.