Interactive SEIR model

Influenza posts Dec 20, 2016 Influenza Modelling Visualisation

Originally prepared as a simple demo for 2016 Open Day, this interactive model allows the viewer to explore how a variety of epidemiological parameters affect the size and duration of an infectious disease epidemic, such as:

  • The basic reproduction number , the average number of persons that a single infectious individual will infect in an entirely susceptible population;
  • The delay between being infected and becoming infectious ;
  • The duration for which an individual is infectious ;
  • The duration for which an individual is protected from re-infection ;
  • The degree to which individuals mix inhomogeneously ; and
  • The proportion of the population that is initially susceptible.

This is a deterministic SEIR meta-population model, where each individual in the population is either susceptible to infection, has been exposed to the pathogen, has progressed to being infectious, or has recovered from infection and has (temporary or permanent) protection from reinfection.

The source code is available under the BSD 3-Clause license.